By Dr Farah Ingale
The COVID 19 pandemic has put all our intelligence, scientific knowledge as well as mathematical expertise to use. All through the time, when Epidemiologists were busy dissecting the virus to understand its course of action, mathematicians have been charting strategies and models to tackle the pandemic in every aspect.
A mix of math and science: Well, this is no secret that mathematical modelling has been critical in revealing how contagious the novel Coronavirus is, how far we should stand from each other, how long an infected person might shed the virus, how a single strain spread from China to Europe to New York and then burst across globe and how to ‘flatten the curve’ to save millions of lives. In India, mathematical modelling has significantly helped the ICMR and the Ministry of Health in understanding the virus pattern and more. Now these mathematic models have been utilized to plan and strategize the vaccination drive too.
In keeping with these models, the first, second and the third phase of the vaccination program were initiated and implemented in India. However, the burden of the second wave is taking us by the storm. The state of Maharashtra has been worst hit. Though COVID19 is especially lethal for those over 65yrs and those with other comorbidities such as Obesity, Diabetes, etc., and yet is spread rapidly amongst young adults who are more likely to recover, Epidemiologists, the Task force, mathematicians, and the Government is now faced with two conflicting priorities when modeling for vaccines – preventing deaths and slowing transmission.
A dual approach to tackle COVID: In the state of Maharashtra, the government was compelled to impose strict restrictions, lockdown during weekends and night curfew to tackle the crisis. The state government has been urging people to follow the norms and stay indoors to decrease transmissions.
Currently the spike in the cases is seen more among younger people. Due to excessive socialization, parties, social gatherings, and offices slowly opening up, the cases among young adults have steeply risen. Of course, people above 45yrs and with comorbidities have a higher risk but, there is an urgent need to stem the growing numbers. Vaccinating everyone over 18yrs will significantly help tackle the severity of the crisis. At one end, the task force will continue providing medical aid and save lives, at the end more & more people can get vaccinated to reduce the severity and transmission rate. However, while there is a great challenge at hand, the state is geared up to tackle the situation.
We need to support the civic authorities, medical fraternity, and the community at large. Every progressive and safeguarded step will help further bring down the case load. It is however important to note that getting vaccinated does mean people can go about roaming without a mask. It may be noted that one may get infected even after receiving both the doses, and although the severity will be quite less, non-adherence to COVID-appropriate behavior will be detrimental to these efforts. Officials are constantly urging people to follow norms and regulations – social distancing, wearing a mask and continuing hygiene practices is a must.
The move will give a big boost to the young office goers who have been homebound due to the pandemic or have had to take risk of venturing out due to work purpose.
This decision by the central government to provide vaccination to all above 18 years comes is a progressive measure to save as many lives as possible, stem the rising numbers and safeguard the healthcare system.
About the Author
Dr Farah Ingale, is the Director-Internal Medicine, Hiranandani Hospital, Vashi-A Fortis Network Hospital ~
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